Molybdenum Q4 Outlook
Keeping track of the steel market is key for investors with an eye on molybdenum.
Keeping track of the steel market is key for investors with an eye on molybdenum.
The price of molybdenum on the LME is down to its lowest level since July of 2010. Weak demand for stainless steel and the summer slowdown in the production of steel are factors. This could represent a bottom for the price as supporting factors come into play in the coming months.
Ken MacDonald Vice President of Business Strategy and CFO Erdene Resource Development discussed the factors controlling the current molybdenum market.
Analysts are bullish for the future of the molybdenum market stemming from growth projection in China. Steel demand, and consequently, demand for moly is expected to grow by 9 percent through 2012.
China’s voracious appetite for molybdenum since the beginning of 2009 has inflated the price of molybdenum. Current price levels do not reflect the actual consumption of the metal, as the Chinese firms are creating vast surpluses to support and lower the cost of steel production.
Recently molybdenum mining companies stock prices have fallen on fears that Chinese steel demand may be waning, a sign of a slowing recovery.However, most analysis of world markets has steel demand rising through 2012. How will this speculation effect the stock price of profitable molybdenum companies?
Chinese firms now control 30 percent of the world’s Molybdenum reserves. In an effort to control the rising costs of steel production, China may be trying to control other minerals needed for alloys, mainly molybdenum. Also included, a market wrap-up of companies that stand to gain from a resurgence of steel demand worldwide.
After the Chinese agreed to fund two Molybdenum companies last week, Thompson Creek Minerals and Antofagasta PLC are looking for financing for new projects to capitalize on surging molybdenum prices.
Projected growth for steel combined with Chinese firms investing in foreign molybdenum producers could provide investors with unique opportunities at a good value.
Government spending will spark a recovery in steel demand towards the end of the year; but its mark on the molybdenum market will be limited. Demand for molybdenum in China likely will rise 6 percent in 2009, then slip to 52,800 tonnes in 2010 before growing again in 2011.
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