Molybdenum Just Keeps Getting Better and Better
Seeking Alpha reported on more reasons to be bullish on molybdenum.
Seeking Alpha reported on more reasons to be bullish on molybdenum.
Molybdenum is increasingly being favored by scientists looking to create cheap and efficient hydrogen power.
The latest five year plan from China limits the production of many base metals in including molybdenum. China the world’s largest steel producer may find itself importing more molybdenum as a result.
Japan will need massive amounts of steel to rebuild what the tsunami washed away. Infrastructure and new automobiles will pave the way for steel demand in the country. While the events in Japan are horrific and depressing, and may affect global markets for quite some time, the need for steel will likely use up a large portion of the surplus that is currently holding down the price of moly.
The use of molybdenum in energy projects from nuclear energy to renewable will add new demand pressures on moly over the course of the year. Prices on the LME have been steadily gaining already this year, increased demand will only add to these dynamics.
A report stating that China may control molybdenum production by classifying the material as a ‘national mining resource’ has been raising eyebrows. How will this affect the molybdenum market? Will the moly market react as the rare earth market reacted to reduction in export quotas? Or will the fundamental differences between the two markets stop a feeding frenzy?
Analysts are bullish for the future of the molybdenum market stemming from growth projection in China. Steel demand, and consequently, demand for moly is expected to grow by 9 percent through 2012.
Imports of molybdenum into China surged in February as overseas sellers stepped up competition with Chinese producers. Imports of moly have surged because Chinese producers have found themselves largely unable to compete with cheaper import offers.
Government spending will spark a recovery in steel demand towards the end of the year; but its mark on the molybdenum market will be limited. Demand for molybdenum in China likely will rise 6 percent in 2009, then slip to 52,800 tonnes in 2010 before growing again in 2011.
Molybdenum prices are currently hovering around the $9 per lb mark, a drastic decline from last Augusts’ high of $34. Molybdenum managed to hold its price point longer than other metals; but in the fourth quarter of 2008 the steel industry’s defeat sent molybdenum on a free fall.
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