Imports of molybdenum into China surged in February as overseas sellers stepped up competition with Chinese producers. Imports of moly have surged because Chinese producers have found themselves largely unable to compete with cheaper import offers.
Government spending will spark a recovery in steel demand towards the end of the year; but its mark on the molybdenum market will be limited. Demand for molybdenum in China likely will rise 6 percent in 2009, then slip to 52,800 tonnes in 2010 before growing again in 2011.
Molybdenum prices are currently hovering around the $9 per lb mark, a drastic decline from last Augusts’ high of $34. Molybdenum managed to hold its price point longer than other metals; but in the fourth quarter of 2008 the steel industry’s defeat sent molybdenum on a free fall.
The first week of 2009 was a sleepy one for molybdenum with thin trading volume as many customers remained on holidays. Activity in China was by far the slowest, with Chinese molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum producers halting spot molybdenum offers to overseas customers.
Molybdenum, a seemingly invincible metal this year finally took a hit in the fall as economic malaise spread. The alloying metal is down 65% this year, and this decline was seemingly overnight.
Molybdenum has gone from an obscure metal, to a high performer garnering the attention of the LME, and then back to an undervalued alloying metal. Once an overlooked player in the investment arena, interest in moly picked up when worldwide spending on infrastructure took off, sending the metal’s price to new heights.
After holding its ground much longer than other base metals, molybdenum’s price point has given way to the global economic current. The metal was stable in the $32 to $35 a pound range for much of this year; holding its value compared to the price plummet of the other base metals.
Japan wants to test the moly market, and will do so by issuing a temporary cut in the November nickel stainless molybdenum (SUS316) steel output. Output will be cut approximately 10%, and for the time being, the curb in production will only last a month to see how the market reacts.
Molybdenum has been a strong performer in 2008; in fact it is just recently that the metal experienced a little downside. The dip in prices could be attributed to the negative market sentiment, as moly’s fundamentals are still strong.
The market volatility over the past two weeks has finally it moly. The alloying metal has held its own for months, while most of the other metals declined rapidly as news about the downturn in the economy permeated the markets.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009