In 2008, molybdenum cost an average of $29/lb after peaking at $30 in 2007. On a monthly basis, however, molybdenum has sold for less than $10/lb for two months now. Investment bank Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York expects molybdenum to average $12/lb this year.
As the shock waves spread around the global economy; many analysts are starting to hedge their bets on when a recovery will start. In their Global Metal’s Report released this week, Morgan Stanley gave their take on the near future for the molybdenum market.
Molybdenum prices have crashed from a high of $35 per pound at the end of October down to the recent level oft US $12 per pound. This represents the worst decline when it comes to commodity prices; a 53 percent drop to be exact.
The first week of 2009 was a sleepy one for molybdenum with thin trading volume as many customers remained on holidays. Activity in China was by far the slowest, with Chinese molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum producers halting spot molybdenum offers to overseas customers.
Slower Chinese buying impacted Ferro-molybdenum prices between last Wednesday and Friday; however, the US’s proposed $136 Billion infrastructure spending plan capped the downside. Western-grade Ferro-molybdenum fell to $24.50-26.50 per kg from $26-28 per kg previously, with the bulk of material sold towards the low end of the range.
Molybdenum, a seemingly invincible metal this year finally took a hit in the fall as economic malaise spread. The alloying metal is down 65% this year, and this decline was seemingly overnight.
The global economic slowdown is affecting both the demand, and price for molybdenum. To cope, companies are planning output cuts and plotting new investment strategies. For the few companies that have a very strong financial position, they are on the look out for acquisitions.
Molybdenum has gone from an obscure metal, to a high performer garnering the attention of the LME, and then back to an undervalued alloying metal. Once an overlooked player in the investment arena, interest in moly picked up when worldwide spending on infrastructure took off, sending the metal’s price to new heights.
After moly held its position over months of poor market sentiment, the metal has been hit hard. Just over a few weeks, the market price of molybdenum oxide has fallen by a whopping 30%.
After holding its ground much longer than other base metals, molybdenum’s price point has given way to the global economic current. The metal was stable in the $32 to $35 a pound range for much of this year; holding its value compared to the price plummet of the other base metals.
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