Molybdenum, which is used to strengthen steel, sold on the spot market at a monthly average of almost $33/lb during the first half of last year, and actually was as high as $33.50/lb in daily trading. But, the spot price slipped to $25 in the second half and continued falling earlier this year - bottoming around $8/lb in April. Analysts predict the price at $12/lb in a couple of months.
As a minor metal, molybdenum is prone to rapid price fluctuations; in the past this had generated huge returns on investment. Molybdenum was one of the last metals to feel the effects of the economic downturn, but has failed to match the recovery experienced by many metals since the start of the New Year.
Imports of molybdenum into China surged in February as overseas sellers stepped up competition with Chinese producers. Imports of moly have surged because Chinese producers have found themselves largely unable to compete with cheaper import offers.
Molybdenum has crashed from $33 per lb in mid ’08, to its Friday closing value $8.70 per lb. Analysts predicts the metal is in for a slow recovery this year, and is anticipated to average $11.00 per lb.
When economic growth resumes, there will be a critical shortage of strategic metals. The rapid collapse in metal’s prices has forced many miners to mothball operations; when demand for these metals resumes, there will be a lag time for production online. This means that as quickly as prices collapsed, we can expect an upswing with more impetus.
In 2008, molybdenum cost an average of $29/lb after peaking at $30 in 2007. On a monthly basis, however, molybdenum has sold for less than $10/lb for two months now. Investment bank Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York expects molybdenum to average $12/lb this year.
Slower Chinese buying impacted Ferro-molybdenum prices between last Wednesday and Friday; however, the US’s proposed $136 Billion infrastructure spending plan capped the downside. Western-grade Ferro-molybdenum fell to $24.50-26.50 per kg from $26-28 per kg previously, with the bulk of material sold towards the low end of the range.
Molybdenum has gone from an obscure metal, to a high performer garnering the attention of the LME, and then back to an undervalued alloying metal. Once an overlooked player in the investment arena, interest in moly picked up when worldwide spending on infrastructure took off, sending the metal’s price to new heights.
The London Metal Exchange will add molybdenum to its arsenal in the second half of 2009. The move was announced on Sept 4th, when the LME board voted in favour of adding both molybdenum and cobalt to its futures trading. The move was met with mixed reviews.
When investors first turn to metals to diversify their portfolio, they usually stick to the classic metals- silver, gold, and copper. The exotic metals- molybdenum, uranium, and tungsten are a rare first approach.
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